Allison Transmission 10/11/2025
MC=$6.6B, Debt=$3.5B. Approx $3.1B sales, $700M net income, $700M Free cash flow.
77% of revenue comes from North America.
10% revenue comes from defense. $200M/year.
Around 4% cost of debt with higher interest notes maturing sooner.
repurchashing shares. “On February 20, 2025, the Board of Directors authorized the Company to repurchase an additional $1,000 million of its common stock pursuant to the Company's stock repurchase program (the "Repurchase Program"), bringing the total amount authorized pursuant to the Repurchase Program to $5,000 million. During the three and six months ended June 30, 2025, the Company repurchased approximately $102 million and $256 million, respectively, of its common stock under the Repurchase Program, leaving $1,263 million of authorized repurchases remaining under the Repurchase Program as of June 30, 2025. The Repurchase Program has no termination date, and the timing and amount of stock purchases are subject to market conditions and corporate needs. The Repurchase Program may be modified, suspended or discontinued at any time at the Company’s discretion.”
Pending Purchase of DANA off-highway by end of 2025 if regulatory approval. “On June 11, 2025, the Company entered into a Stock Purchase Agreement (the “Purchase Agreement”) with Dana Incorporated (“Dana”) to acquire the off-highway business of Dana. Pursuant to the Purchase Agreement, the Company plans to acquire Dana's offhighway business for a purchase price of approximately $2,732 million, subject to certain adjustments, using a combination of cash on hand and debt.” $120M (annual) synergy. Share price did not change in the day after announcement, but fell 10% in the following couple weeks.
My target market cap = $__
Goodyear Tire 10/_/2025
Auto sector outlook is negative as of October 2025. The possibility of increased tarriffs on Chinese imports further weakening the industry outlook. This market is cyclical.
GT has $500M finished inventory increase over first 6 mo. 2025.
Why did goodwill and intangible drop $150M
Approx. $8.5B in debt. MC of $1.9B.
Cash flows are negative.
Even if we doubled 6 mo net income instead, that would be $.8B. With a 8% net cost of capital, then co. is worth approx $10B which is equal to its current MVIC… Do not buy.